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CASE STUDY

Validating a New Bankruptcy Model to Protect 30M+ Pension Beneficiaries

Conducted an independent, rigorous evaluation and reconciliation of the federal government's new Transformational Pension Insurance Modeling System (T-PIMS) bankruptcy module to secure premium-setting accuracy for 20K+ plans.

01. Challenge

Verifying the Structural Efficacy of Next-Generation Federal Forecasting

The agency serves as the critical safety net for private-sector defined-benefit pension plans. To establish premium rates and set contribution limits accurately, the agency relies on complex mathematical forecasting models. As the agency undertook its first complete core model overhaul in over 20 years with T-PIMS, leadership required an independent, expert evaluation of its bankruptcy module to catch errors and align the simulation architecture with real historical trends.

02. Solution

Processing Multi-Scenario Stress Test Cycles and Root-Cause Diagnostics

Our economic modeling and analytics specialists executed a deep, granular reconciliation of the T-PIMS bankruptcy module—the specific component tasked with projecting corporate insolvencies and their down-funnel impacts on federal assets and liabilities. We processed and audited 5,000 simulated scenarios of complex bankruptcy data, meticulously mapping out 500 distinct macroeconomic scenarios across a rolling 10-year outlook to isolate, analyze, and correct underlying model variations.

03. Impact

Securing the Predictive Foundation of America’s Private Pensions

By processing and reconciling 5,000 simulated years of complex bankruptcy cycle data, our team successfully optimized the critical forecasting mechanisms. This rigorous validation process significantly enhanced the structural integrity and predictive accuracy of a vital forecasting model that oversees more than 20,000 private-sector defined benefit pension plans. Ultimately, this work provides the precise analytical foundation required to secure the financial stability and premium-setting frameworks that protect over 30 million individual pension beneficiaries nationwide.

20+

Years Since Legacy System Architecture Was Updated

20K+

Private-Sector Pension Plans Monitored

30M+

Workers & Retirees Protected by Validated Insights

5000

Simulated Years of Bankruptcy Data Reconciled
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