top of page
BasicGrid (2).jpg
Analytics Dashboard View

CASE STUDY

Safeguarding D.C.’s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Solvency via Predictive Modeling

Deployed 27 advanced financial forecast simulations using Department of Labor models to stress-test trust fund solvency against federal reduction scenarios, paving the way for post-COVID trust fund solvency.

01. Challenge

Stabilizing a Pandemic-Depleted Trust Fund Against Future Shocks

Following the historic economic disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, the D.C. Office of Unemployment Compensation (OUC) faced an unsustainably depleted UI Trust Fund. This systemic risk was worsened by a Taxable Wage Base that had remained unchanged since 1995. Complicating matters further, the agency needed to determine its fiscal cushion to protect local workers ahead of a projected 2025 federal workforce Reduction in Force (RIF).

02. Solution

Advanced UNIS-X Scenario Engineering and Executive Policy Diagnostics

Our economic analysts built high-fidelity predictive modeling systems to thoroughly test the trust fund's long-term runway. We executed 27 complex economic forecasting variations utilizing the Department of Labor’s UNIS-X architecture, integrated Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data blocks, and factored in Moody’s Analytics macro-baselines to simulate workforce shock scenarios ranging from 10% to 50%. We then compiled these findings into clear, executive policy memos to equip municipal leadership for legislative action.

03. Impact

Catalyzing Modernized Policy and Data-Driven Financial Oversight

Our detailed stress-testing successfully mapped a clear path to long-term trust fund solvency. By personally briefing the Mayor’s Office, the City Council, and the Office of the Chief Financial Officer (OCFO), we provided the definitive economic justification to propose a change to the City's taxable wage base and expand weekly benefit metrics. To ensure continuous oversight, we deployed an interactive suite of analytical dashboards, empowering current leadership with modern decision-making tools.

1-3%

Forecast Accuracy

3

Legislative Changes Suggested to Maintain Solvency

6

Scenario Planning Interactive Dashboards 

27

Complex Financial Solvency Model Runs

bottom of page